It's nearly impossible to find previous elections here that can help gauge whether the turnout we're seeing in early voting reflects the voting public's interest (or lack thereof) or if it's merely a structural issue having to do with lack of time to create campaign infrastructure and drive strong get out the vote campaigns.
Most people are blaming some combination of voter bewilderment and lack of time on turnout not being very high -- it's going to be less than 10 percent in the early voting period unless a tsunami of voters shows up on today's final day of early voting.
There are other factors, of course. An election in March is very, very unusual. There are no specific candidates appealing directly to people to vote for them -- or creating motivation to get out and vote against them. City of Memphis elections in the last few cycles have shown poor turnouts even when they are held in regularly-scheduled October slot -- just 23.7 percent turnout for the October 2003 city elections in which dozens of candidates were on the ballot and 23.4 percent for the 2009 special mayoral election. That mayoral election featured a sophisticated media campaign from proven vote-getter A C Wharton and another seven serious candidates with proven ability to turn out votes.
If you look at runoff and special elections in recent years, they almost always draw less than 10 percent turnout. And other municipalities, when elections are not scheduled with general elections, struggle -- Arlington got 10 percent turnout for its 2009 elections and Lakeland 5.4 percent, for example.
Still, for an issue drawing so much news coverage, a turnout of less than 15 percent is far from robust.
Most people are blaming some combination of voter bewilderment and lack of time on turnout not being very high -- it's going to be less than 10 percent in the early voting period unless a tsunami of voters shows up on today's final day of early voting.
There are other factors, of course. An election in March is very, very unusual. There are no specific candidates appealing directly to people to vote for them -- or creating motivation to get out and vote against them. City of Memphis elections in the last few cycles have shown poor turnouts even when they are held in regularly-scheduled October slot -- just 23.7 percent turnout for the October 2003 city elections in which dozens of candidates were on the ballot and 23.4 percent for the 2009 special mayoral election. That mayoral election featured a sophisticated media campaign from proven vote-getter A C Wharton and another seven serious candidates with proven ability to turn out votes.
If you look at runoff and special elections in recent years, they almost always draw less than 10 percent turnout. And other municipalities, when elections are not scheduled with general elections, struggle -- Arlington got 10 percent turnout for its 2009 elections and Lakeland 5.4 percent, for example.
Still, for an issue drawing so much news coverage, a turnout of less than 15 percent is far from robust.
Leave a comment