Heading into the final days of early voting on the March 8 schools referendum, turnout remains tepid. After one full week of early voting, 12,948 people have participated, or only about 3.1 percent of the city's 420,425 voters. Since early voting expanded to satellite locations, an average of 1,921 voters have been showing up on weekdays. Voting continues through Thursday at satellite locations throughout the city.
Turnout usually spikes in the final days of early voting, but even if you are generous and imagine an average of 4,000 voters per day through Thursday's final day of early voting, that would make about 29,000 early votes, or about 6.9 percent of registered voters. Early voting has been making up closer to 60 percent of final turnout in recent elections, although it's difficult to gauge how that dynamic will play out in a special election involving a referendum. Still, voting interest would need to jump in a big way for turnout to challenge 15 percent.
As far as who is voting, the best performing precincts by percentage have been in the more white, more affluent neighborhoods. The Shelby County Election Commission provides data on numbers of votes cast so far by precinct, and only 11 of the top 30 precincts are majority-black neighborhoods, according to voting data. That said, four of the five best-peforming precincts are in majority-black neighborhoods -- Glenview Community Center (9.6 percent turnout, or 143 votes), Lakeview Elementary School (7.0 percent turnout, or 171 votes), Havenview Middle School (6.5 percent, or 199 votes) and Graves Elementary School (5.9 percent, or 266 votes).
Add those four up and you get 779 votes -- or about 6.0 percent of all votes cast so far. Eight of the next 11 (and thus 9 of the top 16) best-performing precincts are majority white, and they account for a total of 1,065 votes -- or about 8.0 percent of all votes cast. Of the worst-performing 30 precincts, only one is not a majority-black precinct.
Turnout usually spikes in the final days of early voting, but even if you are generous and imagine an average of 4,000 voters per day through Thursday's final day of early voting, that would make about 29,000 early votes, or about 6.9 percent of registered voters. Early voting has been making up closer to 60 percent of final turnout in recent elections, although it's difficult to gauge how that dynamic will play out in a special election involving a referendum. Still, voting interest would need to jump in a big way for turnout to challenge 15 percent.
As far as who is voting, the best performing precincts by percentage have been in the more white, more affluent neighborhoods. The Shelby County Election Commission provides data on numbers of votes cast so far by precinct, and only 11 of the top 30 precincts are majority-black neighborhoods, according to voting data. That said, four of the five best-peforming precincts are in majority-black neighborhoods -- Glenview Community Center (9.6 percent turnout, or 143 votes), Lakeview Elementary School (7.0 percent turnout, or 171 votes), Havenview Middle School (6.5 percent, or 199 votes) and Graves Elementary School (5.9 percent, or 266 votes).
Add those four up and you get 779 votes -- or about 6.0 percent of all votes cast so far. Eight of the next 11 (and thus 9 of the top 16) best-performing precincts are majority white, and they account for a total of 1,065 votes -- or about 8.0 percent of all votes cast. Of the worst-performing 30 precincts, only one is not a majority-black precinct.
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