Fincher Poll Says He's Ahead of Herron

WASHINGTON -- Republican Stephen Fincher campaign's for the 8th Congressional District, likely to be one of the most expensive in the country against Democratic state Sen. Roy Herron, this morning released a poll showing he's ahead 47 percent to Herron's 37 percent with independent Tea Partier Donn Janes pulling in 5 percent.

The poll was conducted Aug. 10-11 among 400 likely voters and had a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

As Herron predicted before he won the Democratic nomination on Aug. 5, Fincher continues to rail against "the Obama-Pelosi agenda," noting that the same poll shows 59 percent of voters view the House Speaker unfavorably and 55 percent disapprove of the president's job performance. Of note to close followers of the Fincher-Herron battle: former GOP candidate George Flinn's campaign manager, Paul Ciaramitaro, has joined the Fincher campaign.

1 Comments

47 to 37 with a MOE of 4.9 is pretty much a dead heat, although the MOE could probably be decreased by reducing the confidence level to 90% and/or applying the formula for non-worst case MOE (which occurs the closer to 50-50 you get).

Bart, save this link to compute this sort of thing:

http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~jhardin/applets/signed/case6.html

It appears 95% confidence was used. The 4.9 is correct for the 47%, but the 37% (enter these singly in the "Sample Proportions" box in the format .37) yields an MOE of 4.7, giving a maximum of 41.7% for Herron, whereas the minimum for Fincher is 42.1%, giving a very thin edge to Fincher, assuming all the methodology was sound. And there's always that 1-in-20 outlier at 95% confidence.

Enjoy the link, share it with your fellows. Zack?

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