Using some of the information from yesterday's early-voting blog post, we pointed out in today's print edition that Republican turnout in early voting is much more competitive with Democratic turnout than had been the case in 2006 or 2008.
A breakdown of yesterday's numbers from the Election Commission showed the trend continued on Thursday -- 45.6 percent of the 6,735 who voted all around Shelby County asked for Republican ballots, and 54.3 percent asked for Democratic ballots. Once again, the longterm meaning of this is not good for Shelby County Republicans, but the short-term trend is reason for celebration, since in 2006 and 2008 Democrats held closer to a 65 to 70 percent edge in ballots. Republican party leaders tell me that the very best days in 2006 and 2008 would see 42 or 43 percent of voters taking Republican ballots. Republicans have done better every day of satellite early voting than they did in 2006 or 2008.
Also ominous for Democrats is the lackluster turnout of registered black voters. The trend continued yesterday when 2,981 who showed up were registered white voters (43.8 percent) compared to 2,217 registered black voters (31.9 percent) and 1,547 classified as "other (22.8 percent). So far, 13,322 (7.4 percent) of the 180,324 registered white voters have cast ballots compared to 10,037 (4.8 percent) of the county's 207,452 black voters and 7,029 (3.3 percent) of the 212,767 in the category of "other." I always have to include an explanation of the racial classification of voters. Essentially, those registered as black or white are most likely to be older voters and those as "other" for the most part are younger or more newly-registered voters who chose not to disclose their race when registering. The reason election officials ask for race dates back to the advent of voting-rights laws, because authorities wanted to track voting numbers to make sure there was no discrimination or other chicanery at work.
In 2006, with much-larger advantages in numbers, Democrats still narrowly lost several countywide seats. Unless the Democratic candidates can prevent cross-over voting in the local elections, Aug. 5 could be a depressing night for the local Democrats who came into 2010 fully expecting to take most if not all countywide seats.
A breakdown of yesterday's numbers from the Election Commission showed the trend continued on Thursday -- 45.6 percent of the 6,735 who voted all around Shelby County asked for Republican ballots, and 54.3 percent asked for Democratic ballots. Once again, the longterm meaning of this is not good for Shelby County Republicans, but the short-term trend is reason for celebration, since in 2006 and 2008 Democrats held closer to a 65 to 70 percent edge in ballots. Republican party leaders tell me that the very best days in 2006 and 2008 would see 42 or 43 percent of voters taking Republican ballots. Republicans have done better every day of satellite early voting than they did in 2006 or 2008.
Also ominous for Democrats is the lackluster turnout of registered black voters. The trend continued yesterday when 2,981 who showed up were registered white voters (43.8 percent) compared to 2,217 registered black voters (31.9 percent) and 1,547 classified as "other (22.8 percent). So far, 13,322 (7.4 percent) of the 180,324 registered white voters have cast ballots compared to 10,037 (4.8 percent) of the county's 207,452 black voters and 7,029 (3.3 percent) of the 212,767 in the category of "other." I always have to include an explanation of the racial classification of voters. Essentially, those registered as black or white are most likely to be older voters and those as "other" for the most part are younger or more newly-registered voters who chose not to disclose their race when registering. The reason election officials ask for race dates back to the advent of voting-rights laws, because authorities wanted to track voting numbers to make sure there was no discrimination or other chicanery at work.
In 2006, with much-larger advantages in numbers, Democrats still narrowly lost several countywide seats. Unless the Democratic candidates can prevent cross-over voting in the local elections, Aug. 5 could be a depressing night for the local Democrats who came into 2010 fully expecting to take most if not all countywide seats.
This is just showing once again that 2010 is not a good year for the Democratic Party, from the local level on up. Doesn't mean that 2012 will bad, just means that right now, Republican voters are more motivated. I voted in Berclair yesterday morning and there were about 20 people voting during the time I was there. They were all white with one exception and looked to be all over the age of 65 except for myself (I am 34). Those type of voters are the ones most hostile to Democrats, whether they be local Memphis Democrats or Congressional Democrats.
After the 2006 elections, I thought that was it for Republicans winning any races county-wide in Shelby (with the possible exception of Luttrell if he ran for a third term as Sheriff in 2010). Now, if these turnout numbers continue, I wouldn't be shocked if there is a sweep or near-sweep by the GOP.