Republicans in Shelby County are not exactly popping champagne corks yet, but don't be surprised to hear Republican leaders in the county apply the famous Mark Twain quote about the rumors of their demise being greatly exaggerated. The Shelby County Election Commission is showing robust turnout in early voting, and a closer look at the numbers suggests Republicans are much more motivated this year than they were in 2006 and 2008.
It is very early yet, but the three days of expanded early voting at 20 satellite locations have seen 45.1 percent of voters ask for Republican ballots in the state and federal primaries vs. 54.8 percent for Democrats. How is that good news for Republicans? One week into 2008 early voting, 69.3 percent of voters were choosing Democratic ballots vs. 30.6 percent wanting Republican ballots.
So the first three days of voting suggests Republicans have gained almost 15 percentage points from two years ago. Also keep in mind this -- we are already hearing from election officials that many Republicans residing in Memphis's 9th Congressional District are again choosing to participate in the Democratic primary (rather than the Republican gubernatorial primary) so they can vote against former Memphis mayor Willie Herenton; if that is true, it's not hard to project a 50-50 breakdown in turnout between Democrats and Republicans, an enormous difference from the November 2008 presidential elections when the Republican ticket got only 35 percent of the vote.
One other piece of evidence supporting the Republican comeback in Shelby County -- registered white voters are far outperforming their percentage of the electorate from 2008. So far, many more registered white voters have voted (10,351 or 43.8 percent) than registered black voters (7,820 or 33.1 percent) and those classified as "other" (5,482, or 23.2 percent), which covers voters who either declared another race or chose not to disclose race. In 2008, the full early-voting period saw black registered voters make up 43.2 percent of the early vote compared to 37.5 percent for white registered voters and 19.3 percent in the unclassified "other" category.
This is all hugely important, because Democrats have been basing their hopes of a sweep of countywide offices on the performances in 2006 and 2008. But in those years, it's important to recall just how poisonous that "R" label was, and, in 2008, just how much energy Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton brought to Democratic-minded voters. In 2006, despite the anti-Republican mood, Democrats still narrowly missed winning several county-wide seats; if Republican turnout is up from four years ago and Democratic turnout is down, it could mean for a very disappointing -- and unexpected -- county election for Democrats.
Of course, it could just be an early strong push by Republicans that Democrats will match and then overcome. Early voting continues through July 31.
It is very early yet, but the three days of expanded early voting at 20 satellite locations have seen 45.1 percent of voters ask for Republican ballots in the state and federal primaries vs. 54.8 percent for Democrats. How is that good news for Republicans? One week into 2008 early voting, 69.3 percent of voters were choosing Democratic ballots vs. 30.6 percent wanting Republican ballots.
So the first three days of voting suggests Republicans have gained almost 15 percentage points from two years ago. Also keep in mind this -- we are already hearing from election officials that many Republicans residing in Memphis's 9th Congressional District are again choosing to participate in the Democratic primary (rather than the Republican gubernatorial primary) so they can vote against former Memphis mayor Willie Herenton; if that is true, it's not hard to project a 50-50 breakdown in turnout between Democrats and Republicans, an enormous difference from the November 2008 presidential elections when the Republican ticket got only 35 percent of the vote.
One other piece of evidence supporting the Republican comeback in Shelby County -- registered white voters are far outperforming their percentage of the electorate from 2008. So far, many more registered white voters have voted (10,351 or 43.8 percent) than registered black voters (7,820 or 33.1 percent) and those classified as "other" (5,482, or 23.2 percent), which covers voters who either declared another race or chose not to disclose race. In 2008, the full early-voting period saw black registered voters make up 43.2 percent of the early vote compared to 37.5 percent for white registered voters and 19.3 percent in the unclassified "other" category.
This is all hugely important, because Democrats have been basing their hopes of a sweep of countywide offices on the performances in 2006 and 2008. But in those years, it's important to recall just how poisonous that "R" label was, and, in 2008, just how much energy Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton brought to Democratic-minded voters. In 2006, despite the anti-Republican mood, Democrats still narrowly missed winning several county-wide seats; if Republican turnout is up from four years ago and Democratic turnout is down, it could mean for a very disappointing -- and unexpected -- county election for Democrats.
Of course, it could just be an early strong push by Republicans that Democrats will match and then overcome. Early voting continues through July 31.
Isn't there another deeper question: Why is Republican turnout up almost 50% from two years ago, while Democrat turnout has dropped over 20% over the same period?
Zack, very interesting info.
Another thing to consider is the number of white Democrats (alot of Midtowners, etc) that will be voting for Republicans for the county-wide offices. Add that to the number of Republicans who are voting in the Democratic primary just so as to vote against Herenton one more time (there are probably only a very, very small number of Democrats who are voting in the Republican primary) and it is very good news indeed for the local GOP. Now, we just have to see if this continues. I would expect an uptick in Democratic early voting numbers, but there will not be a flood. Democrats are simply not that energized this year.