Locally, Republicans and Democrats will find ways to spin the numbers to their advantage, but Monday's opening of satellite sites for early voting appears to give early credibility to the notion Republicans are spreading that they will be more motivated than in 2008 or 2006. In all, 7,468 people turned out, a huge jump from the first day of expanded early voting in the $1 million May county primaries, when only 2,372 people bothered to show up. Of the 7,408 who requested primary ballots, 3,257 (or 44 percent) wanted Republican ballots and 4,151 (or 56 percent) wanted Democratic ballots.
How is 44-percent turnout good news for Republicans? In the big-picture, long-range view, it is not. But it looks good when compared to 2008, when Republican presidential candidate John McCain could only muster 35 percent of the vote in Shelby County. Whether that improvement of nine percentage points can hold is another matter -- Democrats have been running up the score on Election Day, not necessarily during early voting. And it is also worth noting that the first day of early voting at satellite sites can be misleading, because all campaigns make a strong push on Day 1; it is the strongest campaigns which will outperform over the two-week duration of early voting, applying expensive technology and old-fashioned volunteering to get out the vote.
For more information on early voting, check out the Shelby County Election Commission's website at www.ShelbyVote.com. There is a link on the left-hand side for "Early Voting Daily Totals."
How is 44-percent turnout good news for Republicans? In the big-picture, long-range view, it is not. But it looks good when compared to 2008, when Republican presidential candidate John McCain could only muster 35 percent of the vote in Shelby County. Whether that improvement of nine percentage points can hold is another matter -- Democrats have been running up the score on Election Day, not necessarily during early voting. And it is also worth noting that the first day of early voting at satellite sites can be misleading, because all campaigns make a strong push on Day 1; it is the strongest campaigns which will outperform over the two-week duration of early voting, applying expensive technology and old-fashioned volunteering to get out the vote.
For more information on early voting, check out the Shelby County Election Commission's website at www.ShelbyVote.com. There is a link on the left-hand side for "Early Voting Daily Totals."
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