One political rule of thumb is that candidates who allow results of polls to go public -- through leaks or dropping off crosstabs on a journalist's front porch -- are those who are happy with the results. Back before he started seriously tapping his substantial campaign war chest, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam wasn't talking much about polls of the Republican gubernatorial primary, but U.S. Rep. Zach Wamp of Chattanooga was. While it is true that Wamp continues to assert with great confidence that he is the front-runner and, in his opinion, has the backing of the conservative base, it is now Haslam's campaign that is not exactly unhappy that results of their polling have gotten out.
A memo to the Haslam campaign from Whit Ayres is everywhere now, and we also obtained a copy. It shows Haslam pulling ahead of Wamp, with 37 percent support from a sample of "600 respondents drawn from a list of past primary voters who said they are likely to vote in the Republican primary." According to Ayres, Haslam's support has tripled from 13 percent in January, jumping to 27 percent in February (justifying the $1 million in TV ads during the Winter Olympics) and steadily growing to 37 percent in polling taken June 1-3.
Wamp has held steady, going from 21 percent in February to a high of 26 percent in May and now 24 percent in June. State senate speaker Ron Ramsey of Blountville is at 15 percent. The huge caveat here is that this is the candidate's own polling, although one would think that with the money Haslam has available, there is not much reason for him to pay a pollster to cook the books -- it's not like he's desperate to impress donors (though arguably he'd like to demoralize opponents). Wamp continues to assert this is down to a two-man race and that Ramsey is tilting at windmills (definitely NOT mountaintop windmills, but maybe mountaintop-removed windmills?). This poll allows Haslam supporters to say that Ramsey is closer to Wamp than Wamp is to Haslam, though a Wamp supporter could say that Ramsey's conservative base, should it abandon the state legislator, could put Wamp right on Haslam's tail.
Polls can be fun, but to the credit of these candidates, they've mostly focused on substantive policy in their campaigns. And now that the legislative session is over, Ramsey will have more time to campaign and prove he can expand his base.
A memo to the Haslam campaign from Whit Ayres is everywhere now, and we also obtained a copy. It shows Haslam pulling ahead of Wamp, with 37 percent support from a sample of "600 respondents drawn from a list of past primary voters who said they are likely to vote in the Republican primary." According to Ayres, Haslam's support has tripled from 13 percent in January, jumping to 27 percent in February (justifying the $1 million in TV ads during the Winter Olympics) and steadily growing to 37 percent in polling taken June 1-3.
Wamp has held steady, going from 21 percent in February to a high of 26 percent in May and now 24 percent in June. State senate speaker Ron Ramsey of Blountville is at 15 percent. The huge caveat here is that this is the candidate's own polling, although one would think that with the money Haslam has available, there is not much reason for him to pay a pollster to cook the books -- it's not like he's desperate to impress donors (though arguably he'd like to demoralize opponents). Wamp continues to assert this is down to a two-man race and that Ramsey is tilting at windmills (definitely NOT mountaintop windmills, but maybe mountaintop-removed windmills?). This poll allows Haslam supporters to say that Ramsey is closer to Wamp than Wamp is to Haslam, though a Wamp supporter could say that Ramsey's conservative base, should it abandon the state legislator, could put Wamp right on Haslam's tail.
Polls can be fun, but to the credit of these candidates, they've mostly focused on substantive policy in their campaigns. And now that the legislative session is over, Ramsey will have more time to campaign and prove he can expand his base.
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