If you haven't yet, go read Otis Sanford's insightful (as usual) piece on what a recent poll seems to be suggesting about marquee races on the Aug. 5 ballot, including former Memphis mayor Willie Herenton vs. incumbent Steve Cohen in the 9th Congressional District Democratic primary (Cohen appears to hold a huge lead, with 62 percent of respondents saying they will vote for him vs. only 9 percent for Herenton) and the county mayor race between Joe Ford, the interim mayor, and Mark Luttrell, Shelby County's elected sheriff (Luttrell holds 49-33 lead, according to the poll). Otis provides the various details on the poll -- the huge caveat being that the pool of voters was weighted evenly between black and white voters (200 black voters, 200 white) -- and upon my return Monday from a week away, he and I talked about what the poll may or may not mean.
At first blush, it appears to show that some large portion of the 79-percent of voters for Cohen in 2008 will stick with that investment in 2010. Yet, it reminds me of the discussion we had before the 2007 Memphis mayoral election with pollster Steve Ethridge, when he presented the results of a poll we commissioned on the mayor's race between Herenton, Carol Chumney and Herman Morris. That poll showed Chumney and Morris in striking distance of Herenton, but Ethridge stressed that an unusual number of people were refusing to participate in the poll. If most of those refusing were Herenton supporters, then support for Herenton was stronger than the poll indicated. And if you considered that some large number of "undecideds" were in fact Herenton supporters -- was anyone really undecided about Herenton in 2007? -- then the polling was not far off from the 42 percent Herenton got in that election.
Which is all to say this -- the striking 62-9 result of the Herenton-Cohen side of that poll may not mean the former mayor has no chance. If we assume that some significant portion of respondents chose not to participate and are in fact Herenton loyalists, then give Herenton a huge number of the "undecideds", he could chip away at Cohen's lead between now and mid-July, when early voting begins. Herenton's camp, of course, claims that you can't accurately poll his support, anyway.
So keep that in mind. Or, equally valid, consider that maybe Otis's column may accurately capture some of the reasons why many voters -- including black voters in Memphis -- may not want Herenton to replace Cohen.
At first blush, it appears to show that some large portion of the 79-percent of voters for Cohen in 2008 will stick with that investment in 2010. Yet, it reminds me of the discussion we had before the 2007 Memphis mayoral election with pollster Steve Ethridge, when he presented the results of a poll we commissioned on the mayor's race between Herenton, Carol Chumney and Herman Morris. That poll showed Chumney and Morris in striking distance of Herenton, but Ethridge stressed that an unusual number of people were refusing to participate in the poll. If most of those refusing were Herenton supporters, then support for Herenton was stronger than the poll indicated. And if you considered that some large number of "undecideds" were in fact Herenton supporters -- was anyone really undecided about Herenton in 2007? -- then the polling was not far off from the 42 percent Herenton got in that election.
Which is all to say this -- the striking 62-9 result of the Herenton-Cohen side of that poll may not mean the former mayor has no chance. If we assume that some significant portion of respondents chose not to participate and are in fact Herenton loyalists, then give Herenton a huge number of the "undecideds", he could chip away at Cohen's lead between now and mid-July, when early voting begins. Herenton's camp, of course, claims that you can't accurately poll his support, anyway.
So keep that in mind. Or, equally valid, consider that maybe Otis's column may accurately capture some of the reasons why many voters -- including black voters in Memphis -- may not want Herenton to replace Cohen.
There aren't enough undecideds left for Herenton to catch up, unless this Etheridge's methodology is bad. If we knew what Yacoubian was finding, I'd be more confident of the numbers. Even Cohen's pollster last time was close, and you can divine what HIS numbers are telling him.
Cohen is hard to run against racially, and even blacks are sick of Willie's BS and antics, yet no other black has been able to rise up through the system as AC did, because AC had an independently granted post, and Herenton, like all politicians, only helped those who worship him, not those who challenge him, leaving nothing but ex-flunkies in his wake, much like E.H. Crump before him (as Lucius Burch pointed out).