Will county mayor race be tighter than expected?

Throughout today and the rest of the week, we will post day-after thoughts about the Shelby County primaries that finished on Tuesday.

Interim county mayor Joe Ford won the argument, for now, that it was the people who wanted him to run for mayor, and that voters  (at least in the Democratic primary) would not care whether a candidate for county executive "pays his light bill" or has financial troubles. And it wasn't close -- he got 57 percent of the vote, or 7,444 votes than County Commissioner Deidre Malone (and 5,276 more than Malone and General Sessions Court Clerk Otis Jackson combined).

Republicans officially anointed Shelby County Sheriff Mark Luttrell as their nominee, giving him an impressive 28,538 votes -- oddly, perennial candidate Ernest Lunati got 828 votes, or 3 percent of the vote. Given Lunati's performances in previous elections, about 800 of those votes have to be considered purely anti-Luttrell. Perhaps Democrats out east who asked for Republican ballots so they could have a say in all-Republican county commission races?

Luttrell reportedly is already up with TV ads this morning, demonstrating what will be an enormous financial advantage over Ford. Luttrell had $140,000 on hand as of early April, and looking at his donor list, it won't be hard for him to raise many times more than that amount, if he needs it. Ford had less than $500 on hand  -- it will be interesting to see if big-money, establishment Democrats choose to support him financially or sit out this race.

But in a county where the Republican nominee for president, a war hero with "maverick" credentials, could only pull 35 percent of the vote in 2008, Luttrell has less margin for error than the conventional wisdom wants to assume. I got emails from sources last night suggesting Luttrell will win easily, but my first blush reaction is, "not so fast." Last night I asked Joe Ford, "Can you beat Mark Luttrell?" His response was full of the same confidence and bravado he displayed during the campaign vs. Malone (and that was proven out): "You are saying that wrong, Mr. McMillin. The question is, 'Can he beat me?'"

Malone was disappointed, but soothed to some degree by the knowledge that even a perfectly-run campaign with unlimited funds apparently might not have been enough to overcome the "Ford" brand, her opponent's incumbency and the utter lack of interest from voters in partisan county primaries. She obviously will express support for her party's nominee, but she sounded more sure about the vulnerabilities that can be exposed with Luttrell: "There are some chinks in that armor and he is definitely beatable. The party will have a very strong and coordinated campaign."

There is no question that Luttrell brings formidable advantages and vastly underrated political ability to the campaign. Whatever charisma he may not exude he more than makes up for with astute instincts, and his record of accomplishment as sheriff is impressive. But as Malone well knows, underestimating the ability of the Fords to bring out voters would be a mistake. As well, Ford will have another three months of incumbency, including a recent impressive run responding quickly to the flooding, and the whole "but-you-promised-you-wouldn't-run" argument is now dead, not least because Luttrell said he wouldn't run before changing his mind, too.

The numbers tell us that 35,444 people voted for a Democratic candidate for mayor vs. 29,366 for a Republican candidate, but that may not have much meaning in August, when 200,000 voters may well be turned out. It's hard to know whether the ballot gives a huge Democratic advantage, as many assume is the case with the Willie Herenton-Steve Cohen congressional battle, because Republican gubernatorial candidates will be spending vast amounts of money to get out voters, as will Republican candidates in the 8th Congressional District primary. Also hard to know is how many of those 15,804 non-Ford votes in the Democratic primary will migrate to him, or if Luttrell can count on at least half of them.

One final thought, on the performance of General Sessions Court Clerk Otis Jackson, who got only 6 percent of the vote. It is is another in a long line of recent examples of the way some local politicians fill themselves with delusions of grandeur based upon victories in less-visible elections. Memphis's special mayoral election last fall was but one example. Politicians seem not to understand that when they get, say, 80,000 votes in a school board or clerk election, it doesn't mean all 80,000 people love them. More likely, 79,000 of them recognized their name but not the other candidates.