Recently in 2010 Election: State government Category

Over at The New York Times, the most excellent statistical guru Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight has launched its analysis of gubernatorial races nationwide. Keeping in mind these are pure numbers-based forecasts without factoring in, for instance, the popularity of the McWherter name in rural areas, the verdict for Tennessee shows that Democratic nominee Mike McWherter has work to do. Applying what little polling data is available (which FiveThirtyEight weights according to various factors, including historical accuracy and bias by the polling company) and mixing it with other empirical data, FiveThirtyEight right now is 95.1 percent certain that Republican nominee Bill Haslam, the mayor of Knoxville, will prevail.

There is some good news for McWherter -- FiveThirtyEight sees the election growing tighter by Nov. 2, predicting a final margin of victory for Haslam of 55.0 percent to 42.2 percent.

According to the site, much of the forecasting model relies on its successful Senate forecasting model: "The basic blueprint of taking a robust average of polls, supplementing them with some demographic information and then using them to project the final standing of the candidates remains the same." There are tweaks, including the assumption that races between nonincumbents for governor tighten as election day draws closer.

Things can change. In the 2008 presidential election, which FiveThirtyEight nailed (it only missed Indiana), the final few months of the election showed definite swings, with John McCain at one point, during and after the Republican convention, looking more likely to overtake Barack Obama. Alas for McCain supporters, that evaporated after the financial crisis and the first presidential debate at Ole Miss.

 

 

NASHVILLE - It was almost enough to restore faith in the future: dozens of high school students assembled at the governor's residence this evening to pose questions to gubernatorial candidates Bill Haslam and Mike McWherter.

 

The students were assembled by First Lady Andrea Conte from Nashville public and private schools, including Tennessee School for the Blind. The students took turns asking separate questions of each candidate. The format kept the candidates from answering the same questions and from talking to each other - making it difficult to gauge differences between them - but it resulted in some new topics they haven't faced before.

 

Would Democrat McWherter, for example, seek to restore financial aid for local high schools to participate in the International Baccalaureate program - a rigorous program of academic study that gives high school students several hours of college credit? "Yes!" he declared..

 

Haslam, the Republican, said TennCare will be among the programs that will have to be shrunk to deal with budget shortfalls and that some of the federal health plan mandates concern him.

 

On other topics:

 

· McWherter was asked about controversies over an Islamic mosque proposed in Murfreesboro. He said: "There is no question that I am a huge proponent of freedom of religion in this country. This is what this country was founded upon and I always want to promote that. At the same time, I well understand the constraints and problems you have when you locate an institution like that inside of a quiet neighborhood. And so I think as a community, you ought to be able to have some zoning restrictions....

 

"Now having said that, I think the people who committed the atrocity down there (in Murfreesboro) in burning that equipment should be found and prosecuted to the full extent of the law. That's unacceptable in Tennessee. It's unacceptable anywhere in the United States. We need to find them and we need to prosecute them."

 

· Haslam was asked whether he supports efforts by some legislators to nullify elements of the federal health reform act in Tennessee that require uninsured people who can afford to buy health insurance to buy plans or potentially face tax penalties. He responded:  "I do wonder about a new plan that forces you to purchase something. I don't think we've ever done that in this country before. So that is a concern to me. Coming back to the big picture, I'm concerned long term about the cost of the health care plan. Whether it's an additional $200 million, the low-end estimate, or $400 million a year, it's going to cost us. The impact to the state is going to be big and its going to be felt somewhere along the way in other programs that you care about. I'm also concerned that employers might find it easier just to not pay insurance, have their employees go on TennCare and Medicaid, pay the penalty and come out ahead." 

 

·  McWherter was asked about the federal government's program that allows employers to electronically check the immigration status of potential hires and his view on sponsoring legislation creating "real consequences" for employers who are not validating status prior to hiring. Said McWherter: "This is one of those areas where I totally agree with Zach Wamp. He has talked about the fact that we need to do a much better job of making the E-Verification information available to employers. And I do think we need to make that information avail to employers. We need for them to know if there is an undocumented worker in their workforce, and frankly if there is and they're caught, we need to prosecute them and fine them. It creates a totally unfair advantage for small business in this state for those people who are using undocumented workers. You know they are not paying any kind of taxes on them, you know they're not providing health benefits. Those are expenses that small businesses normally incur and it gives those people an unfair advantage. We need to make sure we go after them. As governor, I'm going to do that."

 

·    Haslam was asked his postion on universal health care and how it would affect Tennessee. He said: "I assume you're talking about the national health care plan that passed this past year. Here's my concerns: the state of  Tennessee is already in a big budget hole - over a billion dollars that's coming out of our revenue that the next governor is not going to have. So we're going to have to address that. Gov. Bredesen called this plan the 'mother of all unfunded mandates.' It's the federal government telling the states what they have to do. Estimates are that it will cost $200 million to $400 million additional. So the question is again, where does that come from? Do you want to take that out of K-12 edcucation, higher education, or infrastructure.

 

"My thought is, what we have to focus on in health care in America is we have to begin with personal responsibility. You look at where our costs have escalated so much, in the end I think a lot of it is...we're not taking care of ourselves and the government's paying for most of that. Until we introduce more personal responsibility in the system, we're going to have problems with health care costs."

 

 

·   McWherter was asked if he's in favor of Arizona's immigration law and would he support similar legislation in Tennessee. He said: "Frankly I think the responsibility for immigration is a federal issue, not a state issue and I am very disappointed that we've got a federal government that has not secured our borders. If we can secure the border between North and South Korea, then I've got to think we can secure our own border. And that has got to be absolutely the first step before we do any kind of immigration reform.

 

"I don't think there should be a patchwork of immigration laws all across the states. You're going to have a patchwork of immigration laws all across the states. If we're forced into that, then yes, I'm going to support it. But what I want to do right now is work with (U.S. Senators) Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker and our congressional delegation and see if we can't get a congressional resolution to that."

 

Haslam was asked how he would deal with a potential billion dollar budget shortfall when a recent congressionally approved increase in Medicaid funding for the state expires. He said: "We don't have a drawer full of money that we can (say) 'Oh that's a good program; lets keep paying for it.' In Tennessee, we don't have an income tax. That's a good thing. Our sales tax is the highest in the country. We're not going to raise taxes in Tennessee. It's the wrong thing to do.

"Our only choice is either to shrink government or to take that out of some other pot. It would mean taking money away from K-12 or higher education or money away from helping folks with mental disabilities. I can go on and on. We're going to have to shrink the size of state government and TennCare is going to be one of those places that happens."

 

As the partisan gubernatorial campaign gathers momentum, expect to see more of this used as an issue -- Tennessee Democrats screaming "Don Sundquist! Don Sundquist! Don Sundquist!" often and with volume turned up. The Tennessee Democratic Party wasted no time using last weekend's "Thank You" barbecue by Sundquist to remind voters that the Haslam family was closely allied with the two-term Republican -- who lost favor with many in his party for a bold push to implement an income tax that would have eliminated food taxes and greatly reduced sales taxes.

One of the messages Democratic nominee Mike McWherter tested during the primary and is continuing into the general goes like this -- y'all loved my father as the Democratic governor from 1986 to 1994 and you loved Phil Bredesen as the Democratic governor from 2002 to 2010, but you didn't much like that Republican who came in between them.

That's not altogether fair to Sundquist, but McWherter is reminding voters that Sundquist, unlike Bredesen or his father, sometimes used budget stopgaps like tobacco lawsuit money rather than fully balance the budget by matching all reoccurring revenues with all reoccuring expenses. McWherter then tries to link that Sundquist habit to Haslam by saying Haslam is scare-mongering with inflated claims of state budget distress that do not jibe with Bredesen constantly delivering balanced budgets that rely on few if any gimmicks (for instance, he refused to use stimulus money to cover reoccurring expenses).

Even Haslam, in his first general-election commercial, took time to extol Gov. Bredesen and Ned McWherter but failed to mention Sundquist. In the final weeks of the Republican primary, U.S. Rep. Zach Wamp of Chattanooga was doing his best to remind voters of the Haslam family ties to Sundquist and leadership role Haslam's father, Jim, took in advocating for an income tax. Expect to hear more from the McWherter campaign about those ties.

Some other bloggers around the state have discussed this as well -- see leans-right "Moderately Marvelous" Jenci Spradlin right here and leans-left Southern Beale over here.

The Washington City Paper took a cue from The Daily Show and produced its own version of what "honest" ads from that city's mayoral candidates, Adrian Fenty and Vincent Gray, might look like. We're thinking of maybe trying something similar with some of the contests on the Nov. 2 ballot here in Shelby County and Tennessee.

For example, maybe a Mike McWherter for governor ad where he just fesses right up to voters and says, "Hi, I'm Mike McWherter, and you know my name because a lot of you, especially in rural areas, loved having my Daddy as governor. And you need to know that our current governor, Phil Bredesen, is strongly supporting me and, like my Daddy, Gov. Bredesen was a responsible steward of the budget, didn't give money away to traditional Democratic interest groups and even made a lot of liberals angry. Also, they were Democrats, and we all know what happened to the budget when a Republican got elected. I'm Mike McWherter, and even though I'm spending a lot of my own money on this campaign, it's not as much as my opponent and, believe you me, it takes up a more substantial portion of my personal wealth than his. Also, my campaign is all about jobs, jobs, jobs. And you folks in Shelby County, don't forget I live just up the road in Madison and I've been reading The Commercial Appeal all my life and I don't need a GPS to get around Memphis."

How about this, off the top of my head, from McWherter's Republican opponent, Bill Haslam: "My family has a lot of money, a growing business empire and therefore, ergo, we have the clout to make people bring jobs to this state or else. And even though Phil Bredesen is supporting my opponent, he knows and I know and you know that I'm a lot more like Gov. Bredesen than my opponent. Gov. Bredesen took his wealth and private sector experience and got into politics ... just like ME! (Crissy Haslam head nods in the background) Phil Bredesen was mayor of NASH-ville; I'm the mayor of KNOX-ville (Crissy Haslam nodding). Democratic voters, please turn down your TV set for just a second. OK. Good. My fellow Republicans, I'm steadfast in my commitment to expanding rights of citizens to keep and bear arms, we've got to get control of the illegals  and we've got to stand up to Obama before we lose this country. You back, Democrats? (WINK at them). OK, remember Shelby County that my wife grew up right there in Memphis and her good friend is a schoolteacher who thinks I'm the best. I'm Bill Haslam, and the millions I'm spending to fund this campaign are the equivalent of a week's pay for most of you."

Any other thoughts in other races? It might be worth spending real money to come up with a Stephen Fincher-Roy Herron "honest" advertisement, though somehow you've got to believe The Daily Show cannot resist making a trip to Frog Jump for Indecision 2010, or whatever they will call it.

One of the area's newer political science professors, University of Memphis assistant professor Eric Groenendyk, helped us out with a story earlier this week giving a preview to the Nov. 2 midterm elections. His field of study aligns with some of the themes emerging from this election cycle -- political psychology and specifically the role emotion and especially anger plays in motivating voters.

Groenendyk, who received his PhD at the University of Michigan, says, "Anger seems to be a very consistent predictor of political participation."

Historically, presidents usually see their parties suffer huge casualties in midterm elections, for various reasons. One reason -- a new president often helps the party win close races in districts that are essentially coin tosses that then go the other way in two years time. Winning an election, Groenendyk points out, also means making lots of promises and creating expectations that you'll make changes for the better. And even if a president succeeds in making changes, that often is to the president's detriment -- the opposition now can take aim at a record (think of President Obama on healthcare reform, the stimulus, foreign policy).

"You get anger when you have someone to blame and the president is an easy person to blame," Groenendyk said.

And that is consistent, historically, no matter the party of the sitting president. One exception to the rule was George w. Bush in 2002, when the public was approving of his handling of 9/11, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and tax cuts had raised individual incomes. Of course, Bush is blamed even by Republicans for the losses in 2006 and 2008. Which, again, is tied to anger. Although Obama's approval ratings are now in the low 40s, they are still higher than Bill Clinton's or Ronald Reagan's at the same point in their presidencies.

As Frank Newport, editor in chief for Gallup pointed out recently, "This is not all that unusual for the second year of the presidency."

Gallup polling, by the way, showed that 51 percent of "conservative" Republicans were "very enthusiastic" about voting in the midterm elections, compared to 29 percent for "liberal" Democrats and 24 percent for "moderate" Republicans.

 

NASHVILLE - No wonder that both candidates for governor say they won't raise sales taxes.

 

A new report by the non-partisan Tax Foundation confirms what most Tennesseans already suspected at the checkout counter: the Volunteer State has the highest combined state and average local sales rate in the country - although some cities elsewhere have higher combined rates.

 

Local sales taxes in Tennessee - those levied by cities and counties - are capped at 2.75 percent, and are 2.25 percent in Memphis and Shelby County. But statewide, local sales taxes in Tennessee average 2.44. Combined with the 7 percent state sales tax, Tennessee's combined state and local average rate is 9.44 percent - the nation's highest, according to the Tax Foundation http://www.taxfoundation.org/ a Washington nonprofit that monitors federal, state and local fiscal policy.

 

After Tennessee, the Tax Foundation reports states with the highest combined state and average local sales tax rates are California (9.08 percent), Arizona (9.01), Louisiana (8.69), Washington (8.61) New York (8.52), Oklahoma (8.33), Illinois (8.22), Arkansas (8.1) and Alabama (8.03).

 

Memphis and Nashville are tied with San Jose, Calif., for the 13^th highest combined sales tax rates - 9.25 percent - among the nation's major metropolitan areas, the Tax Foundation also reports. Both the state and metro area reports are available on the website above.

 

Birmingham and Montgomery, Ala., share the dubious distinction of having the highest combined sales tax rate - 10 percent - in the nation.

 

Unlike Tennessee, Alabama's city and county sales taxes are stacked on each other. So in Birmingham, consumers pay 4 percent state sales tax, 4 percent city and 2 percent county sales tax, for a total 10 percent. In Montgomery, it's 4 percent to the state, 3.5 percent to the city and 2.5 percent to the county.

 

Ouch! At least in Tennessee, you pay a city or county sales tax depending on where the sale occurs - but not both.

 

On the other hand, Tennessee is among 17 states that tax food to varying degrees, which progressive tax-policy advocates decry. Tennessee discounts the sales tax on food in grocery stores (not restaurants) by 1.5 percentage points; that is, the state sales tax applied to grocery food is 5.5 percent rather than the full 7 percent. Local sales taxes are added on top of the 5.5 percent.

 

According to the Federation of Tax Administrators http://www.taxadmin.org/ Tennessee is one of 10 states that provide some sales tax discounts - either state or local or both -  for food purchases. Two others - Alabama and Mississippi - apply their full sales tax rates to food. Five state - Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma and Wyoming - tax food but provide rebates and/or tax credits to low-income households. http://www.taxadmin.org/fta/rate/sales.pdf

 

Tennessee's sales taxes are high, of course, because we rely on them to fund government more than most states do. Seven states don't have individual income taxes at all: Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming. Two - New Hampshire and Tennessee - have a limited income tax that taxes only unearned income such as some interest and dividends, according to the FTA http://www.legis.state.wi.us/lfb/Informationalpapers/4_individual%20income%20tax%20provisions%20in%20the%20states.pdf

 

Surprisingly, given the current anti-tax political environment, three states have increased their sales or income tax rates this year, according to the Tax Foundation.

• Arizona voters approved - by a 64 to 36 percent margin - increasing their sales tax from 5.6 percent to 6.6 percent.

• The Kansas legislature increased its sales tax rate from 5.3% to 6.3%.

• Oregon voters approved - by a 54 to 46 percent margin - a state income tax increase retroactive to Jan. 1, 2009.

 

Meanwhile, neighboring Arkansas enacted another decrease in its sales tax on grocery food, now subject to 2 percent in state sales tax rather than 3 percent. Local sales taxes may be added.

 

Interesting appearance in Shelby County today by Republican gubernatorial nominee Bill Haslam today in Shelby County -- he met with all the mayors (except for Joe Ford). First, he met at City Hall with Memphis Mayor A C Wharton and Shelby County mayor-elect (and current sheriff) Mark Luttrell before heading out to Bartlett for a meeting with suburban mayors.

It's hard not to wonder what the Mike McWherter campaign made of Wharton, maybe the most popular and respected Democrat in the area, agreeing to be a part of a tour that at its heart is part of Haslam's political strategy?

The first thing to say -- Haslam is, after all, the mayor of Knoxville and Wharton has known him for many years. It's also true that, win or lose, Wharton knows that keeping a strong relationship with Haslam (and the Haslam family AND key supporters of Haslam like Brad Martin and Allen Morgan) is in the best interest of Memphis. Of course, Haslam's huge lead in the one poll taken since the general election makes them seem even more vital.

The second thing to say -- Wharton endorsed McWherter (after first endorsing Jim Kyle, who subsequently dropped out).  

Still, it was hard not to find significant the image of Memphis's very popular Democratic mayor standing alongside the Republican nominee for governor, inside the mayor's offices on the 7th floor of City Hall, with TV cameras rolling. That would be quite a show of hospitality for a campaigning gubernatorial candidate of Wharton's own party, much less the Republican nominee who came out strong in the primary against illegal immigration, for less restrictive gun laws and against federal health-care reform so popular with Democrats.

"It's not the first time in my career," Wharton said when I asked him, meaning he has done bipartisan appearances before. "I have no idea who is going to win and certainly, Mayor Haslam was by no  means presumptious. The kind of discussions we had, even if he were to say, 'I can't go for this,' these are  the kinds of discussions we ought to have across the state of Tennessee. Without getting into any questions of  endorsement, that issue doesn't come up at all. This is what's good for this state, regardless of who is in the  governor's seat. And that is what we discussed, challenges we face across this state but more importantly the  opportunities we have across the state."

Shelby County Sheriff and county mayor-elect Mark Luttrell also met with Haslam and Wharton at City Hall and appeared with them for the cameras afterward.

We ran a small preview of what voters around here might expect from the gubernatorial candidates. Republican nominee Bill Haslam, the mayor of Knoxville, is well in front of Democratic nominee Mike McWherter in terms of visits here during the campaign and, of course, exposure on TV and other media outlets via paid and earned media.

In the GOP primary, Haslam also held a big advantage because of prominent local supporters here like Brad Martin and Allen Morgan, and the fact that he married, as he puts it, a "Memphis girl" in former Midtowner and St. Mary's Episcopal School graduate Crissy Garrett Haslam. In the general, however, McWherter will claim even more familiarity with Memphis, Shelby County and certainly West Tennessee, and his father, the former governor Ned McWherter, will certainly work his network in this area very hard in support of his son.

Mike also has a son, Walker, who is a freshman linebacker on the Rhodes College football team. He promises to plan some campaign stops around Rhodes College games.

See below for lengthy quotes from both candidates on Memphis, Shelby County and West Tennessee.

The bottom line is I may not be from Shelby County but I'm about as close as you can get without actually living here. I'm a next-door neighbor. I've grown up reading The Commercial Appeal since I was 4-years-old -- admittedly then it was the comics. I have been following Memphis and its progression all of my life. I do not need a GPS to get myself around Memphis, Tennessee. I'm very familiar with the city. I know the issues Memphis faces first hand. I've grown up around watching what's happened with The Med and understanding how important it is to this city and understanding how important the University of Memphis is.

And I've got a son who just started Rhodes here last Thursday. I'm in Memphis a tremendous amount and I believe that exposure I've had all of my life gives me an insight here nobody else can have. And I can tell you when I get through being governor, I'm moving back to West Tennessee. I'm not selling my house any moreso than my fahter sold his. I'll be living right back here next door to Shelby County the rest of my life. And it will be important to me that Shelby County progresses because I understand what an economic engine Memphis and Shelby County are to this state, and unless they are doing well, the rest of the state cannot progress. We can't have one region of the state doing extremely well and another region lagging behind.

Memphis and Shelby County and West Tennessee are a big part of what I think the next governor needs to pay a lot of attention to. There is incredible potential here and we talk about everything form the Memphis Research Consortium potential to what's happening with the University of Memphis to what's happening with the distribution-logistics capacity. And I can go on and on. I'm actually very, very excited about jumping into the middle of that and being a part of the answer that I know all of us wants to see happen here. And I can promise you that West Tennessee and Shelby County are going to get my full attention.

I always say part of that is because my wife is from here and she would kill me if I didn't. But it's really, really much bigger than that. But that part's true, by the way. But it really is really much bigger than that. If Tennessee is going to do well, Shelby County has to do well. It's really that simple.

We're back. Hiatus over. The big Aug. 5 ballot is behind us, but ahead lies the Nov. 2 general elections and a big transition in county government with several offices gaining newly-elected leaders.

As a warmup, here is a link to the CQ House map, which is color coded to show how competitive congressional districts are around the nation. Note that CQ rates 29 of the 433 House seats as "toss ups" and that of those 29, two of them are right in our own backyard -- Tennessee's 8th Congressional District (Democrat Roy Herron vs. Republican Stephen Fincher) and Mississippi's 1st Congressional Districts (Democrat Travis Childers vs. Republican Alan Nunnelee). Both are currently held by Democrats, but Republicans believe they can win them. Both are mostly rural with some urban and suburban areas. And both will be receiving lots of attention from media and political donors from across the country.

Also worth noting -- two of the 31 "leans Democratic" districts are across the river in Arkansas -- AR-1 and AR-2, both currently held by Democrats.

One thing reporters appreciate about U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen -- he tells you exactly what he thinks and assumes you have thick enough skin to take criticism. So it was that the congressman and I came to have a phone conversation Tuesday morning about the piece Sunday that pondered to what extent race may have played a role in Democrats losing every countywide election last week. I included some of that in today's story where Cohen worries over Democrats getting outhustled by Republicans countywide and a trend nationwide of weak turnout by black voters.

Cohen objected to the Sunday piece, because he says that in Shelby County anyway, white voters actually have a strong history of supporting candidates of the other race against a viable candidate of their own race. Off the top of his head, Cohen can rip off many examples beyond the usual A C Wharton 2002, 2006 and 2009 and Herenton 1995, 1999 and 2003. He cites Kenneth Whalum and Myron Lowery for City Council in 1991, points to judges like Otis Higgs, Russell Sugarmon and D'Army Bailey ("they all ate quiche and drank wine at the same bar as D'Army," Cohen said).

Cohen talked about what he called the "Cody problem," referring to attorney Mike Cody's unsuccessful run for mayor as a liberal white Democrat (Cody, by the way, actively supported Republican county mayoral candidate Mark Luttrell). Cohen says that in political circles, it was assumed a liberal white would not win if squeezed between a black Democrat and a white Republican or Democrat with conservative views on race. "The consensus was blacks would not vote for whites," Cohen said. Hence, he said, his overwhelming victory over former Memphis mayor Willie Herenton was a huge leap forward for Memphis because it showed clearly that voters here are not swayed by racial politics.

Rhodes College political science professor Marcus Pohlmann, who has written books on the subtle and not-so-subtle ways race has affected politics and public education in Memphis, told me on Friday that the "dirty little secret" was white voters don't always vote for black candidates. Reading over the article, I may have portrayed Pohlmann as more absolute than he intended. But his point lined up with what I had been hearing from candidates and strategists during the campaign asking why the burden of "moving past race" was only being placed on the shoulders of black voters. Joe Ford's mayoral campaign, especially, made overt appeals to white Democrats not to cross over and vote for Mark Luttrell. It didn't work, at least not well enough, though of course that does not mean those white Democrats who voted for a man who chaired Bob Corker's campaign in Shelby County are racist. Luttrell can list his nonpartisan bona fides at the drop of a hat, and also point out the support he received from black Democrats, too.

The Sunday piece did bring to the surface a discussion that was very much happening among Democrats. The piece has received its share of criticism, but I've also had lots of calls and emails from black voters and candidates thanking us for raising the issue. That discussion isn't happening among Republicans because they are comfortable with their explanation for the sweep -- they say they had better candidates (including the first elected black Republican in probate court clerk-elect Paul Boyd), a better plan and more motivated voters. Democrats, like Cohen, will go into 2012 believing the millions spent here on TV ads and get-out-the-vote operations by Republican gubernatorial and congressional candidates -- along with Shelby County school board elections -- had a lot more to do with the "slaughter" as Cohen put it.