Former mayor Willie Herenton may have called the upcoming special mayoral election a "crap shoot," but at least one local pollster says preliminary numbers shows this election is Shelby County Mayor A C Wharton's to lose.
Berje Yacoubian, president of survey research firm Yacoubian Research, said in a recent survey of 500 Memphians, Wharton came in the lead followed by Mayor Pro Tem Myron Lowery and City Councilwoman Carol Chumney.
"The poll clearly showed that Mayor Wharton is in the driver's seat," Yacoubian said, adding that Lowery's increased exposure as interim mayor means he can now "generate and in some cases control a lot of media attention."
Yacoubian stressed his poll is not a scientifically accurate reflection of how the race will play out.
The question was asked at the end of another survey conducted by Yacoubian and the 500 people were not a representative cross section of Memphians -- African-Americans only made up 28 percent of those surveyed.
Also, the poll was conducted two weeks ago and excluded most of the 10 candidates who have since tossed their name in the ring. People were asked to pick from a limited pool of possible candidates including Chumney, Lowery, Wharton, City Councilman Jim Strickland and former councilman Jack Sammons.
But Yacoubian said this poll is a "good lead as to where they (the candidates) are starting from." He added that Wharton was the only candidate with a high percentage of both African- American and white support.
Word has spread, too, about other polls showing Wharton is the preferred candidate of a formidable swath of voters and with very high favorable ratings, according to reporter Zack McMillin of The Commercial Appeal. It was lost on nobody that Strickland decided not to run shortly after receiving results of a poll. Those with knowledge of that poll say it showed Wharton holding a commanding advantage in public opinion that crosses racial lines.
But the old saying about one day being a lifetime in politics has long held true, and most of the declared candidates can point to a proven track record of electoral success. If the polls are accurate, however, it would appear that beating Wharton will mean persuading many people to change their minds about the county mayor.
Berje's polls are suspect. His candidates always get the answer they want.
I'm still wondering what all wharton did to make willie herenton;s sexual harassment charges go away when he was his lawyer. Wasn't he also his campaign manager after that??
He also predicted that Herenton would come in 3rd after Carol Chumney and Herman Morris? What is the point of advertising a poll that is admittedly not representative or scientifcally valid and excludes most of the candidates?
28% of the respondents in a city-wide poll were African-American? Yeah, it's safe to say this poll is pretty much worthless.
"He also predicted that Herenton would come in 3rd after Carol Chumney and Herman Morris?"
There was a different dynamic at play in that election. IIRC, Herenton supporters were a bit defensive and intentionally skewed polls by lying about their choice (or saying they were undecided).
I don't think you're going to see that kind of devotion to any candidate here. If a poll can be conducted without the blatant sample error we see with the one in the article, we'll have a pretty decent picture of the playing field.
It's good to see Alex treat this with some skepticism, but more is needed. The poll is junk. Small sample size, not all the candidates, skewed demographics and still no actual numbers released? This really shouldn't be a story.
The sample size is fine (abt. 4.38 MoE) and is pretty typical for polling in a city our size.
I'd love to know how that sample was selected, though. To get a 28% sample of African-Americans in Memphis, you'd have to be polling almost exclusively in East Memphis.