Poll in 2007 showed Wharton with huge edge over Herenton

It's not just longtime campaign manager Charles Carpenter who Willie Herenton seems unconcerned about showing political disrespect by declaring an interest in entering the special mayoral election triggered by his own resignation. Shelby County Mayor A C Wharton, who also helped manage several Herenton for Mayor campaigns, is among those Herenton refers to in his statement when he describes a "puzzling field of candidates."

It was also Wharton who delivered unambiguous praise for Herenton at the July 30 retirement ceremony, a move that some political observers said seemed to suggest Wharton was signaling to Herenton's base. Rather than a generic, safe congratulatory speech, Wharton offered what seemed to be genuine admiration and respect for Herenton.

Whether Wharton needs those most loyal to Herenton is another question, and if Herenton does indeed run, it will be interesting to see whether Wharton can keep a constituency that polls are showing is wide, deep and very comfortable with the idea of Wharton as mayor. After all, Wharton did draw just more than 116,000 votes in each of two Shelby County general elections, and won 80 percent of the vote in the 2002 Democratic primary for county mayor.

And in 2007, when a cross-section of Memphis interests came together to form a "Draft A C" movement, a poll commissioned by The Commercial Appeal showed Wharton with a commanding advantage despite not campaigning at the time. Wharton, who ultimately opted not to challenge Herenton in that October's election, had solid support of 30 percent in the poll of 500 likely voters, compared to 18 percent for Herenton. The poll's 4.4-percent margin of error showed that Wharton's lead could have been as large as 20.8 percent or as low as 3.2 percent, although it also determined that 23 percent of voters said they were undecided.

"A C Wharton is the only possible candidate, who, if he were to enter the race, would have a near-certain chance of defeating Herenton," said Steven Ethridge, president and chief manager of the Cordova firm Ethridge and Associates LLC, which conducted the poll.

Herenton's supporters often declare that polls have been very wrong when it comes to measuring his actual level of electoral support, the idea being that white voters who like him are relunctant to say so and black voters are suspicious of answering polls. In a final poll conducted for the 2007 race that did not include Wharton, Ethridge surmised that if many of the people who were refusing to participate in the poll were indeed Herenton supporters, he could likely get more than 40 percent of the vote -- very close to his final tally of 42 percent.